In the early days of the iPhone, users upgraded their device especially often. But as the product matured, and carrier deals changed, the ‘upgrade cycle’ started getting longer. Now, it seems, that trend is starting to reverse.
iPhone upgrade cycle just got shorter for a lot of users
CIRP’s latest report highlights a change in iPhone upgrade patterns seen during the most recent quarter, ending in December 2024.
Michael Levin and Josh Lowitz write:
There were more iPhone buyers retiring “younger” phones compared to earlier quarters. Specifically, 36% of iPhone buyers in the December 2024 quarter reported having their previous phone for two years or less, compared to 31% in the December 2023 quarter.
Conversely, slightly fewer buyers had a phone for three years or more (33%) or for two to three years (30%) compared to 2023. The shift from 2023 to 2024 was divided evenly between these two categories.
For years, investors and analysts have stressed over the question: “How often are users upgrading to a new iPhone?”
It’s an important question.
Top comment by Blurft
The headline says "likely for Apple Intelligence" and the article says "CIRP’s data seems to show what I suspect is an Apple Intelligence impact," but there's no definitive data supporting that conclusion. How does the author defend their use of the word "likely" in the headline when there isn't any evidence for it?
What do you attribute the changing iPhone sales trends to?
-- Better trade-in promotions and values?
-- A desire to switch to USB-C?
-- Wanting the Camera Control button?
-- Concerns about how tariffs and other aspects of a trade war might influence pricing? (this is what convinced me to upgrade in November)
There are entirely too many confounding variables that these reports do not address to say that Apple Intelligence must be what is drawing customers with any level of confidence. This has been pointed out in the comments of numerous articles recently, so why does this website continue to ignore all of the other potential explanations for people upgrading?
Once again it feels like this site is acting more like an unofficial promotional department for Apple than any sort of independent journalistic endeavor.
If you have a lot of people buying a new iPhone every two years, that will make a huge sales impact. But if users hold on to their iPhone for 3, 4, 5+ years, there’s a similar impact in the wrong direction.
9to5Mac’s Take
CIRP’s data seems to show what I suspect is an Apple Intelligence impact. Users of the iPhone 15 (non-Pro) and older had AI features as a fresh incentive for upgrading sooner than they might otherwise.
This theory is supported by Tim Cook’s recent statement that the iPhone 16 was outperforming the iPhone 15, and sales were especially strong in markets where Apple Intelligence had launched.
What do you attribute the changing iPhone sales trends to? Do you think it’s Apple Intelligence, or not? Let us know in the comments.
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